Precommitment Broken but Fixable

Right now, you can pick up any newspaper and find political grandstanding regarding the Debt Ceiling. Devised in 1939, it was an initial and well meaning attempt by the US government to force spending restraint upon itself. By law, the government could borrow this much and no more – a line was drawn in the financial sands. Good idea, unless you can repeal or change the law whenever you want, which of course the government can. It took only two decades before the Debt Ceiling was officially described as “a meaningless strait jacket.” Like an alcoholic leaving the key in the liquor cabinet, politicians have voted away their previous debt resolutions and installed a new higher limit, hundreds of times already, though undoubtedly each increase was going to be “just this once.” What is remarkable about this latest increase is the level of debate around it.

Given that the Debt Ceiling is a leaky roof, the present situation is predictable and was repeatedly predicted. I wrote this excerpt from The Procrastination Equation a few years ago: “By the time you are reading this book, it will be even worse. The United States, for example, will likely have finally hit the 100 percent mark, the point where it owes everything it makes in a year…  How did we get so deeply in debt? Governments display the same intention-action gap that defines all procrastinators; they form intentions to stop spending but change their minds when the moment to act is upon them.” Looks like I was bang on the money.

In the 70 years since the Debt Ceiling’s inception, we know now how to patch its holes. It’s an example of a well-studied, self-control mechanism called precommitment, which means acting now to prevent ourselves from acting otherwise later. For example, revelers who don’t want to overspend precommit by leaving their credit cards at home and take only cash. It can be used successfully by governments as well. Canada has kept its own social security program solvent through the effective use of precommitment; the Canadian government simply can’t get their hands on this dedicated money.

Here is a list of six refinements to the Debt Ceiling based upon a modern understanding of human nature and precommitment. This is also what the U.S. Founding Fathers intended. James Madison, the Father of the Constitution, wrote “It may be a reflection on human nature, that such devices should be necessary to control the abuses of government. But what is government itself, but the greatest of all reflections on human nature?”

1. Express The Debt Ceiling in Terms of Percentage of GDP: Expressing debt in absolute terms, such as $14.3 trillion, makes sense only if the economy doesn’t grow. The amount of debt a country can incur should be in proportion to how much wealth it generates, a debt-to-GDP ratio. It’s exactly the same principle bankers apply to us when we seek a loan – the more assets you have, the more you can borrow. By using a debt-to-GDP ratio, it ensures we don’t get into the dangerous habit of mindlessly raising the Debt Ceiling simply to keep pace with a growing economy. We don’t want to make any changes to the Debt Ceiling habitual; it should be a well publicized exception.

 2. Set the Debt Ceiling Conservatively Low: Some debt is reasonable but it is hard to establish how much. The economists Carmen Reinhard and Kenneth Rogoff estimate we enter a danger zone when the debt-to-GDP ratio hits 90%, regrettably a tipping point the U.S. has already past, but let’s leave some wiggle room. I would argue for 50%.

 3. Make it Progressively Harder to Raise the Debt Ceiling: Abraham Lincoln is credited with stating “The Constitution is not a suicide pact.” Accordingly, we can’t lock ourselves into a Debt Ceiling entirely as we have to have some flexibility in case of an emergency or disaster. But we can’t make it too easy either. If there is a need to raise it above 50%, greater agreement should be required. A one-to-one tradeoff is a starting point, so to raise debt-to-GDP ratio to 60% requires a 60% majority and to 70% requires a 70% majority. If there truly is an emergency, it should be big enough that most politicians regardles of their stripe can recognize it.

 4. Make it Hard to Keep The Debt Ceiling High: Once a higher Debt Ceiling is established, it doesn’t automatically stay there. It needs to be voted on and reconfirmed yearly.

 5.  Give Motivation To Reduce Debt: Reduce the pay of each senior elected official to the degree the Debt Ceiling stays above 50%. I would suggest a 2% reduction in salary for each percentage point increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Consequently, if the debt-to-GDP ratio ever reaches these commanding heights once again, the House, the Senate, and the Executive would be paid almost nothing. Tell me this won’t be motivating.

 6. Maintain Attention: The U.S. National Debt Clock moved from Times Square to the Avenue of the Americas in 2004. Move it once again, this time into the House of Representatives and display the Debt Clock prominently above the mantel, that is above the Speaker’s chair. Recycle those now defunct terror color-codes from Homeland Security. As the debt-to-GDP ratio gets larger, the numbers stop glowing green and move up though orange and red.

Each of these refinements is based upon a solid and modern understanding of human nature. It would be absolutely astounding if these updates didn’t work. The alternative to revising the Debt Ceiling is really the status quo as the default is even more debt. Is anyone really saying “Hey, it hasn’t worked in the last 70 years but let’s give it another 70 more”? Consider the words of George Washington: “Indeed, whatever is unfinished of our system of public credit, cannot be benefited by procrastination; and, as far as may be practicable, we ought to place that credit on grounds which cannot be disturbed, and to prevent that progressive accumulation of debt which must ultimately endanger all governments.” Given that he spoke this in 1794, this must be the world record for longest bout of procrastination (and counting), but it isn’t a record to brag about.

Ulysses and The Sirens

It began 3,200 years ago, but the story of precommitment or self-binding reads very much like a modern-day bachelor party in Las Vegas. Ulysses is sailing back from the Trojan Wars when he finds himself bound tightly to his ship’s mast, unable to free himself despite his frantic efforts. Just out of reach but in full sight, tempting him with every delight, are maddeningly beautiful women. Without clothing or shame, these nymphs beckon him, promising to fulfill every act his imagination can bring forth. He begs for nearby friends to release him from his constraints, but there is no response. Instead, his companions thwart his efforts and, indifferent to his needs, carry him on past these voluptuous temptations. Why? Because that is exactly what Ulysses asked them to do.

You see, Ulysses originally wanted to reach Ithaca and reunite with his wife Penelope. But doing so meant sailing past the Island of the Sirens, filled with bewitching women who sang songs so alluring that men would do nothing but listen to them, not eat or sleep, until they died. Ulysses was both curious and smart, so he had his men plug their ears with wax and had them tie him to his ship’s mast. He knew that if he didn’t act now, when he was in his own control, he would give in to the Sirens later, when their songs reached his ears.

Ulysses’ strategy of precommitment is the direct result of the two-story nature of our minds. As the previous post discussed, our mind’s first floor, the limbic system, can override decisions made by the mind’s second story, the prefrontal cortex. As a result, our long-term intentions are often undone by short-term pleasures. Impulsively, we get sidetracked by distractions that give immediate gratification at the cost of our larger but later goals. A frustrated prefrontal cortex, constantly having its will thwarted, tries to act now to prevent the limbic system from acting otherwise later.

Though ancient in origin, precommitment has become a modern method to combat all forms of temptations. We have Ulysses Laws and Ulysses Pacts, where people can self-bind their actions with the ropes of law. To treat gambling addiction, Ulysses Laws allow countries around the world, including a dozen U.S. states, to enforce self-bans at casinos. Missouri is the harshest as once you restrict yourself there, you never can get back in (that is, unless you make the trip to one of Missouri’s—count ’em—eight adjoining states). Similarly, patients suffering from addiction or mental illness make Ulysses Pacts, where if they ever relapse or fail to take their medication, they instruct others to later force them into treatment. Another variation is Covenant Marriages, an upgraded union that makes obtaining a divorce considerably harder, and then only for major reasons like physical abuse.

The power behind the Ulysses’ strategy, and what makes it a particularly effective technique for procrastinators, is acknowledging that our willpower can weaken. We may intend to diet, exercise, or finish that project, but we also know that we are impulsive, which can allow temptations to get the upper hand. How many times have we promised ourselves to get up early and hit the gym only to hit the snooze button the next morning? At the office, when an imminent project is due, are we still taking excessive “breaks” to check out our favourite websites? And later that day, how often is dinner accompanied by dessert, undoing all the nutritious choices we had made earlier?

To master precommitmen,t you have a couple of choices. The Procrastination Equation reviews the three basic forms: Bondage, Poison, and Satiation. The trick is putting precommitment into action, as it really can be used for everything from waking up early to tackling national debt. Because I can’t prepare you for every possible situation, let’s use just a few examples to get you going.

Bondage

This is classic precommitment, directly descended from Ulysses, where you physically prevent yourself from taking immediate actions. Realistically, you can almost always reach the temptation, but it is going to take a lot of effort and time (e.g., Ulysses could have chartered another ship to return to the Island of the Sirens). The best modern example of its application is dealing with the Internet. Perpetual access to the World Wide Web transforms every laptop into a virtual strip club, casino and games room, making procrastination a staple in every workplace. Professional writers have often had to resort to extreme measures to keep this Siren at bay. Jonathan Franzen Krazy-Glued a stick into his laptop’s Internet connection. Jonathan Lethem goes one step further: “I’ve set up a second computer, devoid of Internet, for my fiction-writing. That’s to say, I took an expensive Mac and turned it back into a typewriter. (You should imagine my computer set-up guy’s consternation when I insisted he drag the Internet function out of the thing entirely).” Here’s a few others.

• Eating: Food destruction! To prevent yourself from nibbling after you are already full, throw out tempting treats or ruin them with the liberal application of a salt shaker.
• Sleeping: Using Clocky, an alarm clock on wheels that runs away from you in the morning. It removes the snooze button option and then some.
• Working: Aside from destroying your Internet connection, erase those games off your computer.

Poison

This is a little bit different than bondage. With poison, you can act upon the temptation to do the wrong thing at any time, but it is going to be really costly. For example, taking the drug disulfiram, brand name Antabuse (made by none other than Odyssey Pharmaceuticals, based on the Greek name for Ulysses), doesn’t prevent you from drinking alcohol, but within five minutes of downing a frosty cold one, expect a long list of symptoms ranging from nausea and a throbbing headache to convulsions, heart failure, and death. It has the same success rate as no-bite nail polish (i.e., it works about half the time).

But the most common way to increase your costs is through money. Back when economists John Romalis and Dean Karlan were pudgy graduate students, they bet each other $10,000 that they could take the weight off. Knowing the limited finances of graduate students, I’m not surprised that the bet worked. Now that they’ve lost the weight, they maintain their slender physiques with a $5,000 penalty if either one ever goes over. After becoming a professor at Yale, Karlan and Ian Ayres created stickK.com (the extra K is economic-speak for contracts) to help you to make side bets for anything. The key is that you need to i) enlist an accountability partner or referee, ii) wager a meaningfully large amount, and iii) make the action specific enough that the referee can verify whether you did it or not.

• Eating: Buy an expensive wardrobe for yourself that only fits if you hit your target weight. As a bonus, immediately give away most of your present clothes.
• Sleeping: Use the alarm clock SnuzNLuz. It’s programmed with your credit card information and wirelessly connected to the Internet, so I wouldn’t touch that snooze button. Pressing it would initiate a sizeable donation to a charity that you hate.
• Working: Give a meaningful sum of money to a friend and commit to emailing him or her your finished report at the end of this week. If the report isn’t sent, your friend keeps the money.

Satiation

Precommitment doesn’t necessarily have to be harsh. Abraham Maslow suggests that our needs form a pyramid, where it isn’t easy to focus on higher order needs if lower ones aren’t being addressed. So it is difficult to study if we are tired or to write if we crave company. Saint Paul the Apostle showed some early understanding of this principle when he suggested a rather fun way to foster faithfulness to our partners:

“Do not withhold yourselves from each other unless you agree to do so just for a set time, in order to devote yourselves to prayer. Then you should come together again so that Satan does not tempt you through your lack of self-control.”

Who wouldn’t endorse this advice? The underlying idea is that we might be procrastinating because our desires aren’t being met in an appropriate manner. Left to grow, they become irresistible and we impulsively indulge in them when we shouldn’t. Instead, the strategy is to satisfy our needs now in a controlled and responsible manner so our needs don’t run amuck later. More than just sex, this can be applied to any basic need:

• Eating: Have a series of healthy pre-planned snacks to prevent yourself from ever getting too hungry. Don’t go grocery shopping hungry either.
• Sleeping: It isn’t getting up that’s your problem. It’s getting to sleep early enough.
• Working: If you find yourself socializing excessively at work, ask yourself if you get out enough on evenings and weekends.

Next Steps

I particularly like the last of these, precommitment through satiation. It’s possible that you procrastinate because you aren’t taking enough time for yourself. Perhaps a regular date night with your spouse or an evening off with friends would help you focus on your work a little more diligently and with a lot less resentment. Too bad it can’t all be this way.

That said, you will likely need to have the other, crueler versions of precommitment in your self-regulatory toolkit as well. They are simply more powerful. For example, in his sixth-century text The Art of War, Sun Tzu recommended, “Throw the troops into a position from which there is no escape, and even faced with death they will not flee. For if prepared to die, what can they not achieve?” I wouldn’t bet my life on completing a project, but you are free to make your financial precomittments as large as you need. Make it large though and you will definitely find yourself terrifyingly motivated.

To make the most of your personal precommitment strategies, we need to hear about how to effectively wield them. Your example doesn’t have to be clever, just effective. How do you precommit?

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